Mayo Report

[JohnMayo]

What I would like to see is the $22.9 million go to $150 million and I don’t care about market share. If the market share stays exactly the same but the market expands by 555% everyone including the smaller publishers would do much better. More people would be making a living or a better living in the comic book business and that is what I would love to see.

I'd love to see sales go up across the board too.

[drew]

comics has a distribution problem. I don’t mean Diamond specifically (even though they are far from perfect) but that the industry does a poor job getting its products from production to an easy to find consumer marketplace

yeah its ridiculous-why does it have to be preorder based - it should work like magazines or books at the book store...

the Top 300 was approximately $22.9 million in retail dollars. With the big two having 73.49% of those retail dollars. Would some people like to see the big two only have 50%, 30% 20% or even 0% of those dollars?

of course capes and cowls comics will always have a place in comics, but they may be at their ceiling, they have had close to 100 years of dominant market share in brick and mortar and this is all they can muster (just one comic selling over 100,000 copies for last 3 months)

Are there DC/Marvel centric shops, sure. For argument sake lets say that is 50% of 2,0000 shops, if you grow to 5,000 shops and still 50% are DC/Marvel centric that means there would be 2,500 shops that weren’t instead of 1,000 there currently are.

but with digital its equal across all publishers regardless of size and it is quite possible market share will shift to these other genres/publishers leading to more and varied storytelling and that will grow the industry

don't get me wrong i LOVE DC/Marvel comics, but it makes me angry when i go into a LCS with 10 copies of The Movement on the wall and ZERO copies of saga, mind MGMT, manifest destiny, extinction parade or even walking dead...it's ridiculous and short sighted...and that's why they have to sacrifice half their store to magic nerds and hero clix just to make rent.

[seanfitzpatrick]

Hi guys! I love the Mayo Report (even in spite of your anti-Marvel bias [WebWiz2] ) and think that you are possibly too negative re: the big two in sales. So i did a little bit of excel magic too and found that in relative terms the comic book industry seems to be doing okay. Here is some charts looking just at March's numbers going back to 1997. Note how Marvel is still ahead of its's 1998 numbers and just a bit below average. The only one above their average is Image (who has really low numbers due to the dead zone of the 2000s). So I think this looks great for overallh industry health! And this does not take into account the explosion of TPBs during this time and more importantly the increase in digital.

[image]http://i.imgur.com/GEr80OC.png[/image]
[image]http://i.imgur.com/oDvESl1.png[/image]
[image]http://i.imgur.com/GEr80OC.png[/image]

About digital, I think you are a bit too dismissive of the sales. We know that IDW is making about 15% revenue from digital and is about 30% of direct market sales - See http://comicsbeat.com/are-comics-sales- ... e-for-idw/ and http://comicsbeat.com/idws-ted-adams-in ... nd-v-wars/. Jim Zub seems to show that the margins are much better than print. http://www.jimzub.com/?s=sales. And this doesn't take into consideration the Unlimited Service which is just gravy for Marvel (low cost digitization with subscription service=a lot of money for little effort).

What I do think is happening - is the switch to digital is starting to take a bite out of comic sales. I know a lot of folks my age (mid 20s to mid 30s) have made that move because of space and convenience. I think we are seeing the first real signs of this digital move in the floppies. People still want TPBs to read, but I bet they don't care about print as much. Why would you if you could wait a month and get it for a buck cheaper on Comixology or wait 6 months and get it on Marvel Unlimited.

What will be interesting is whether the move by Comixology will help singles sales. I just don't see it, but I could be wrong.

Lastly, I think the independents (which everyone want to succeed) is doing great in this new digital age. Again look at Jim Zub who has finally created a successful comic with DIGITAL sales. I think the success that independent authors saw in Amazon (http://authorearnings.com/the-report/) is beginning to take shape in comics. Just look at the increase of order numbers at the bottom of the charts (very healthy all around).

Hell, would I have tried Atomic Robo without Comixology? No. Would I be in love with all MonkeyBrain's output (fun comics - something you guys regularly bemoan the lack of)? Heck no. I even got into Dynamite and Valiant due to digital sales!

Just some interesting points I want you to discuss in future episodes. Love the show and keep up the great work!

[WebWiz4] [WebWiz4] [WebWiz4] [WebWiz4] [WebWiz5] [WebWiz5] [WebWiz5] [WebWiz5]

[JohnMayo]

If I seem like I have an anti-Marvel bias, it is probably because I give Marvel a hard time for the various sales gimmicks they do on a routine basis. They have taken retailer incentive covers to an art form. The number of titles they double ship in a given month is staggering. The short lifespan of volumes and the frequency of first issues is stunning. None of those things are good for the health of the industry. Most are actively eating away at what little sales stability and growth there is.

Comparing data from before March 2003 and after that point is like comparing apples and oranges. The data prior to that point is preorders (which does not include reorders but does include items that never shipped) while data after that point is what was invoiced to retailers.

Your charts seem to be for the aggregate sales. The aggregate sales are influenced by new titles selling at higher levels replacing lower selling titles that ended. This hides the increasing amount of churn in the number of titles we are seeing these days. The aggregate is also influenced by all of the titles shipping multiple issues in a given month.

My monthly Excel file has a column for the change in sales from the previous issue of the title. It is a negative number for usually at least 85% of the list. Most titles are dropping in sales. The few each month that aren't can usually be attributed to a sales gimmick and those gains are usually lost on the next issue. If my analysis of the sales seems negative, it is just a reflection of the negative sales trends seen on virtually every title out there.

While trade sales and digital sales are important, it is still the monthly comics that generate nearly all of the new content for all formats. The amount of original material for digital is increasing but in terms of sales influence, it is a drop in the bucket compared to the amount of original material generated for single issue print sales. Until either the trades or digital formats start selling enough to support new content generation, the sales of single issues is vital to the on health of the industry as without those issues the amount of new content to put into trades and digital drops substantially.

I would also challenge you to back up your assertions about digital sales with some specific sales data for digital titles. I don't have digital sales data available and therefore can't talk specifics about how that sales channel is doing. I'm not dismissive of digital sales but I am skeptical of digital sales since I see no data to back up the claims being made. I prefer to deal with data, no the occasional percentage of sales figure given once in a while with no clear content of the number it is a percentage of.

I'm a little confused how you can think sales are great but that digital is eating into single issue print sales. What makes you think digital is hurting print sales right now? The decreases in sales on titles that I'm seeing are in line with the decreases for the period prior to digital comics being available for purchase which implies that digital isn't the cause. Are you seeing something I'm not? What are these "first real signs of this digital move in the floppies" that you are seeing? Because, if we do see a massive switch from print to digital then we are in for interesting times ahead as there are a lot of print titles that are only a few thousand to ten thousand units away from entering the danger zone of getting cancelled.

As for digital being an avenue for people to try out titles and often at a cheaper price than print, I completely agree. I think digital is a great venue for getting causal comics book fans and lapsed comic book fans back into the fold. Marvel's Digital Comics Unlimited is a great low cost way for people to read a ton of comics without going broke. I've got a coworker who is doing this. In many cases, I don't think this is taking away print sales as these people probably weren't going to spend the money on the print comics. Certainly, there are some cases in which readers cut over from print to digital causing a decrease in print sales but I think that is the minority of cases. Any decreases in sales from that are hidden but the standard attrition in sales print comics hover the last decade since the final order era began.

[drew]

Hell, would I have tried Atomic Robo without Comixology? No. Would I be in love with all MonkeyBrain's output (fun comics - something you guys regularly bemoan the lack of)? Heck no. I even got into Dynamite and Valiant due to digital sales!

yep, i would never had tried Greg Pak's Code Monkey Save World or D4VE if not for monkeybrain, two really great books...

[Perseus]

Hey John and Sam!

Nice to hear about Big Dog Ink on the recent Comics Mayo Report show! I love Legend of Oz Wicked West. Also, Sam, you can get Big Dog Ink trades at InStockTrades website! Big Dog Ink is a small publisher doing quality work which also John and Drew have talked about just recently.

Also, John, I agree with you on DC and their sales troubles. I used to get a ton of DC books, but now, they hardly hold my interest anymore. I only have 3 DC books now on my pull list.

Also, How are IDW TMNT sales? That's always a quality book in my opinion.

[the1captain]

Hell, would I have tried Atomic Robo without Comixology? No. Would I be in love with all MonkeyBrain's output (fun comics - something you guys regularly bemoan the lack of)? Heck no. I even got into Dynamite and Valiant due to digital sales!

I agree. Going digital gave my long relationship with comics a 2nd wind. And opened me to a lot more independents. Big Valiant fan and Monkeybrain is slowly getting me to try more and more of their books.

Like John said, for us "outsiders" there isn't enough data out there to argue about digital sales and their impact on print. For what it's worth I was at a con last year and at a panel asked a DC editor about the impact. His response was that not only do they believe digital does not hurt print, but it can help it. As people may try a series digitally and then maybe get the trade if they like it.

The current direct market system in my opinion hurts retailers the most. Before the direct market the publisher would have to over print their runs as the newsstand model factored in returns. Therefore the publisher was stuck with extras. But with the direct market it is the retailers that are stuck with unsold books. Some would argue this "saved" the business years ago but now the burden is way more on the retailer. That is why you rarely hear DC or Marvel complain about sales not being what they were 30-40 years ago. On their end there is less waste and therefore saving money.

[JohnMayo]

Also, How are IDW TMNT sales? That's always a quality book in my opinion.

In April, TMNT #33 sold 16,736 units, TMNT New Animated Adventures #10 sold 5,911 units and TMNT Color Classics Series 2 #6 sold 3,209.

TMNT #33 was the third best seller for IDW behind My Little Pony Friendship Is Magic #18 with 26,091 units and My Little Pony: Friends Forever #4 with 20,149 units.

The main TMNT series is selling reasonably well for a non-DC/Marvel title. If you exclude DC and Marvel, it was the 22nd best seller in April. TMNT #33 outsold all of the New 52 titles getting cancelled: Birds of Prey, Superboy, Trinity of Sin: Pandora, Trinity of Sin: Phantom Stranger, Larfleeze, All Star Western, Batwing and Stormwatch.

[JohnMayo]

The current direct market system in my opinion hurts retailers the most. Before the direct market the publisher would have to over print their runs as the newsstand model factored in returns. Therefore the publisher was stuck with extras. But with the direct market it is the retailers that are stuck with unsold books. Some would argue this "saved" the business years ago but now the burden is way more on the retailer. That is why you rarely hear DC or Marvel complain about sales not being what they were 30-40 years ago. On their end there is less waste and therefore saving money.

There is something fundamentally wrong with the risk having been shifted away from the publishers which know the most about the products being created onto the retailers that know the least about those products. In a more ideal world, the publishers would do a better job of educating the retailers (and readers) about the products and the retailers would do a better job educating the publishers (and creators) about what the readers seem to really want.

[drew]

nice 'cast as always,

re: the discussion on publishers without licensed properties that have had recent growth, i would offer ONI Press with Letter 44, the Bunker, and sixth gun have had steady growth over time, and are at least on the map more now than ever

re: the manifest destiny bump for 7 and fall back to 8, #7 was not only the start of a new story arc following the TPB & hiatus; it was also the first/only issue of the title to be offered with a variant cover (silvestri) - its a great series with a 9.99 first trade, check it out...

re: futures end weekly sales, yes it ends in March, and i wonder as its sales erode from week to week, is it possible (unless it gets a big bump from September event) that it will go out with a whimper, with less than 10,000 sales per issue by the end? it seem to look like the downward trend is going that way to me

[SpideySavestheDay]

re: the manifest destiny bump for 7 and fall back to 8, #7 was not only the start of a new story arc following the TPB & hiatus; it was also the first/only issue of the title to be offered with a variant cover (silvestri) - its a great series with a 9.99 first trade, check it out...

Assuming the variant gave Manifest Destiny a bit of a boost, do you think it was a majority of readers doubling-up or readers picking between the two covers? I was wondering about this when it came to DC's choice to reenter the variant debate with themed-choice covers (ie bombshell, monsters, 3D, etc). The dynamics of this type of variant versus the chase-variant seems more conducive to enticing people to at least notice the books participating.

John, do you think that we are seeing mainly readers buying both covers or people sampling by picking the cover they like?

[JohnMayo]

Assuming the variant gave Manifest Destiny a bit of a boost, do you think it was a majority of readers doubling-up or readers picking between the two covers? I was wondering about this when it came to DC's choice to reenter the variant debate with themed-choice covers (ie bombshell, monsters, 3D, etc). The dynamics of this type of variant versus the chase-variant seems more conducive to enticing people to at least notice the books participating.

John, do you think that we are seeing mainly readers buying both covers or people sampling by picking the cover they like?

I think there are some people who double dip and some you pick the cover they like best. Themed covers can go either way and I think can draw in more people that aren't getting the title already but want the complete set of themed covers. Covers which form a joint image tend to lead to more double dipping since some people will want the full image.

[drew]

i'm guessing mostly double dippers, still a lot of completionist collectors out there and 'ya gotta have em all'

[drew]

-Amazing Spider-man is 5 issues in and still selling over 100,000; do you think all the readers that left during the Superior run are back or are these new readers?

-Nice call on Rocket Raccon-it ONLY lost around 80% of its sales from issue 1; is that the largest percentage drop between issues you have seen?

-What is the difference on reported sales for returnable ordered comics, those with an asterisk that had numbers slightly reduced, 10 percent? 20? do those actual sales ever get reported later?

looking forward to the next episode

[JohnMayo]

-Amazing Spider-man is 5 issues in and still selling over 100,000; do you think all the readers that left during the Superior run are back or are these new readers?

It has to be a combination of both.

-Nice call on Rocket Raccon-it ONLY lost around 80% of its sales from issue 1; is that the largest percentage drop between issues you have seen?

No, it isn't. There have been a few other insane drops. Virtually all of them have been the result of major promotions of one sort or another on the first issue and virtually no such effort on the second. I'd have to dig around in my database to see what the largest drop I've seen is.

-What is the difference on reported sales for returnable ordered comics, those with an asterisk that had numbers slightly reduced, 10 percent? 20? do those actual sales ever get reported later?

Great question. The returnable items are reported at reduced levels. With past DC weekly titles that was 20%. Any sales over that could get reported as reorder activity later but i suspect that any invoiced sales in a given month which are under reported aren't credited in later months. From a reporting point of view, it is an easy oversight to make and even if you notice the issue, it complicates the reporting code more than some people might think is worthwhile.