Mayo Report

[drew]

couple questions:
when adding 2d + 3d sales of the same issues, how does that change the top 20 or so rankings: since DC announced they are both officially first printings (and basically just variant covers), to me it would make sense to see those tallies, and i would be curious to see if that pushes all non-DC out of the top spots

how did DC villain month sales compare to new 52 launch sales from 2011? how about a "normal" September in 2010, pre-new 52

when discussing Image titles over issue 20, you did not mention recently reviewed Elephantmen (over 50), is it selling below rank 400?

[JohnMayo]

couple questions:
when adding 2d + 3d sales of the same issues, how does that change the top 20 or so rankings: since DC announced they are both officially first printings (and basically just variant covers), to me it would make sense to see those tallies, and i would be curious to see if that pushes all non-DC out of the top spots

My CBR article this month contained a chart with the 2D and 3D sales stacked and ranked. Only Batman (2011) #23.1 Joker and Batman (2011) #23.2 Riddler outsold Infinity #2 and #3. So, no, the combined sales would not have pushed Marvel out of the top slots.

how did DC villain month sales compare to new 52 launch sales from 2011? how about a "normal" September in 2010, pre-new 52

The first issues of the New 52 totaled to around 3,245,746 units in September 2011. The DC Universe titles for September 2010 did around 1,606,846 units. That number is a quick calculation and I might have filtered the list wrong since I don't have all of that data tags with being in the DCU or not.

when discussing Image titles over issue 20, you did not mention recently reviewed Elephantmen (over 50), is it selling below rank 400?

I was limiting the discussion to the data from September. Elephantmen #50 came out in July. That title has fallen below the top 300 since Elephantmen #37 back in January 2012.

[fudd71]

when discussing Image titles over issue 20, you did not mention recently reviewed Elephantmen (over 50), is it selling below rank 400?

I was limiting the discussion to the data from September. Elephantmen #50 came out in July. That title has fallen below the top 300 since Elephantmen #37 back in January 2012.

This was my fault, I don't read many Image comics and don't know all the series they publish. I was simply looking at the September numbers for Image comics and no issue of Elephantmen shipped that month. Issue #50 shipped July 17th and issue #51 shipped October 2nd. So there was no issue for August or September.

I would agree that Elephanmen is certainly an Image book that has made it past #20. Looking at the September number only, there are only 10 that fit the greater then issue #20 mark. Personally I think all Image books fit into three categories and these are the books over issue #20 separated by (my personal interpretations of) those categorizes.

Original Image / TopCow Universe
Spawn #235
Witchblade #169
Darkness #115
Savage Dragon #191
(newer off-shoots of the old Image/TopCow universe)
Prophet #39
Artifacts #31

Robert Kirkman books
Walking Dead #114
Invincible #105

Current Day modern Image style properties
Chew #36
Morning Glories #31
This is also the category I would put Elephantmen in (it just wasn't on the list I was looking at since it didn't have an issue that month)

The Current Day modern Image style properties list seems to me for the most part to be de-facto miniseries regardless of how they are labeled. A few outliers exist that make it to a number greater then issue #24 (two years) but they are rare (CHEW, Morning Glories and Elephantmen being the current ones). Even these books that do make it struggle for survival, Elephantmen as John noted is bellow the bottom of the list much of the time and since issue #37. Since issue #24 (#25 to the September nubmers) Chew is averaging 12,589 copies per issue and Morning Glories 11,659 per issue. Not exactly huge sales. While this style makes up only 20% of the Image books over issue #20 it also accounts for something in the neighborhood of 80% of books Image publishes.

This is not a slam of Image comics by any means. One could argue if it is an inditement of comic readers or not. I think this holds true at all publishers including the big two. The big two do have a noticeable advantage for certain titles. Old titles with a storied history like Amazing Spider-man, Avengers, Detective Comics and Action Comics can be renumbered and survive past issue #24 but they will almost assuredly also be renumbered back to the "classic" numbering at some point. Unfortunately I think the odds are stacked almost insurmountably against a creator finding the success and longevity of Robert Kirkman's Walking Dead or Invincible. Even the success Dave Sim found producing 300 self-published issues of Ceribus seems like a distant memory and something not possible to recreate.

[drew]

great discussion on latest episode

to your point regarding only one 2.99 book in the top selling books, i wonder if retailer pressure has anything to do with that as well, it seems most retailers prefer the additional $1 profit potential and this coupled with publishers capitalizing on lack of reader backlash from increases has contributed to this trend, which sucks...IMO

[JohnMayo]

great discussion on latest episode

to your point regarding only one 2.99 book in the top selling books, i wonder if retailer pressure has anything to do with that as well, it seems most retailers prefer the additional $1 profit potential and this coupled with publishers capitalizing on lack of reader backlash from increases has contributed to this trend, which sucks...IMO

I'm not sure. I think the additional dollar does drive some readers away and does hurt sales a little. The additional dollar seems to more than compensate for any loss that does happen. I would hope most retailers would want lower prices so they could sell more copies to more people.

[comicm]

As much as I want Valiant to have a break out it we have to consider that this book shipped with like at least 30 covers. It was a returnable book so I wonder if like DC they had an * next to it factoring in a % of returnable items.

Also I believe you stated there were no Kaboom! books this month solicited with the Robocop issues but I see many. Adventure Time: The Flip Side #2, Adventure Time #25, Regular Show #11, Regular Show: Skips #4, Bravest Warriors #17, Garfield #22, and Peanuts #16

[JohnMayo]

As much as I want Valiant to have a break out it we have to consider that this book shipped with like at least 30 covers. It was a returnable book so I wonder if like DC they had an * next to it factoring in a % of returnable items.

Also I believe you stated there were no Kaboom! books this month solicited with the Robocop issues but I see many. Adventure Time: The Flip Side #2, Adventure Time #25, Regular Show #11, Regular Show: Skips #4, Bravest Warriors #17, Garfield #22, and Peanuts #16

Between zillions of covers, huge second issue drops and sometimes having some level of returnability on first issues, they have become a poor indicator of how a title is going to do. You are indeed correct that Unity may not turn out to be a breakout title even with the strong sales for a Valiant title.

I was looking at the solicitations in Previews as a forward looking indicator of what Boom had coming. Did I just not seem them in the Previews issue I was looking at while recording? It seemed like an unusually short section for Boom.

[comicm]

As much as I want Valiant to have a break out it we have to consider that this book shipped with like at least 30 covers. It was a returnable book so I wonder if like DC they had an * next to it factoring in a % of returnable items.

Also I believe you stated there were no Kaboom! books this month solicited with the Robocop issues but I see many. Adventure Time: The Flip Side #2, Adventure Time #25, Regular Show #11, Regular Show: Skips #4, Bravest Warriors #17, Garfield #22, and Peanuts #16

Between zillions of covers, huge second issue drops and sometimes having some level of returnability on first issues, they have become a poor indicator of how a title is going to do. You are indeed correct that Unity may not turn out to be a breakout title even with the strong sales for a Valiant title.

I was looking at the solicitations in Previews as a forward looking indicator of what Boom had coming. Did I just not seem them in the Previews issue I was looking at while recording? It seemed like an unusually short section for Boom.

Seemed like you skipped the KaBoom! section of Boom!. Anyway great episode. FYI I noticed something very weird in my order last time Star Wars and The Star Wars were not uniquely identified. Seems that one title dropped the word "The". I wonder if that will impact you in the future.

[drew]

comment on the top 100 theory you and Sam proposed i.e. DC/Marvel books not in the top 100 are in danger of cancellation

i agree this is happening pretty consistently but isn't it setting titles up to fail by the big two because:

there are around 10 non-big two titles in the top 100 each month

and well over 100 published titles from DC(new52+vertigo) & Marvel (60+?) monthly

I am no math major but it seems it is impossible for all their books to chart in the top 100 unless it is at the expense of the other major publisher

It seems more likely to me (and just makes fiscal sense) there is a profitability number of issues (give or take lets say 20,000 copies) needed to remain on the schedule.

or maybe its a combination of the two factors...

[fudd71]

comment on the top 100 theory you and Sam proposed i.e. DC/Marvel books not in the top 100 are in danger of cancellation

i agree this is happening pretty consistently but isn't it setting titles up to fail by the big two because:

there are around 10 non-big two titles in the top 100 each month

and well over 100 published titles from DC(new52+vertigo) & Marvel (60+?) monthly

I am no math major but it seems it is impossible for all their books to chart in the top 100 unless it is at the expense of the other major publisher

It seems more likely to me (and just makes fiscal sense) there is a profitability number of issues (give or take lets say 20,000 copies) needed to remain on the schedule.

or maybe its a combination of the two factors...

While I understand your idea, and it would seemingly make sense, life and business don't tend to work this way (or least we don't think of it in these terms). I would be willing to bet that even if all books in the top 100-200 range sold in the 50K range, those books would still be subject to cancellation. Much like we have talked about on another thread regarding television ratings, all of these measures tend to be in regards to position in the market not hard numbers.

Let's get out of comic books for a minute and just talk a random consumer product doesn't matter what it is. If you can make a profit by selling 50K units per cycle (doesn't matter if that is weekly, monthly, yearly whatever) of Product X and you make it in 40 colors. Now lets assume 10 colors sell 500K per cycle, 20 colors sell 250K per cycle, 20 colors sell 125K per cycle. All colors of the product are profitable in this scenario, but if you ran this company you would still be looking to replace those bottom 20 colors and possibly some in that tier above that too.

Just because something is technically profitable doesn't mean it is truly the best way to spend the resources to create it. In above scenario the return on the investment of producing certain colors is much greater, so the logical thing is to try to and get that type of return from all your capital not just a portion of it.

I realize this is a very basic argument and doesn't cover all factors, but I think it illustrates the point none the less. Striving to make your lower end products more profitable or replacing them with products you think will be profitable is the only way to approach this. Right now the big two are producing around 65 items a month and anything not in the top 25% of their items I think is in danger of being cancelled. I don't think that would change if sales tripled for all books because they would still be striving to match the numbers of the higher tier books.

[JohnMayo]

Also I believe you stated there were no Kaboom! books this month solicited with the Robocop issues but I see many. Adventure Time: The Flip Side #2, Adventure Time #25, Regular Show #11, Regular Show: Skips #4, Bravest Warriors #17, Garfield #22, and Peanuts #16

I think I hit the Archaia section, saw not Boom and erroneously jumped to the wrong conclusion that the Boom section was done. My bad. You are correct there were a lot more things under the various imprints of boom than I gave credit for.

[drew]

Let's get out of comic books for a minute and just talk a random consumer product doesn't matter what it is. If you can make a profit by selling 50K units per cycle (doesn't matter if that is weekly, monthly, yearly whatever) of Product X and you make it in 40 colors. Now lets assume 10 colors sell 500K per cycle, 20 colors sell 250K per cycle, 20 colors sell 125K per cycle. All colors of the product are profitable in this scenario, but if you ran this company you would still be looking to replace those bottom 20 colors and possibly some in that tier above that too.

Just because something is technically profitable doesn't mean it is truly the best way to spend the resources to create it. In above scenario the return on the investment of producing certain colors is much greater, so the logical thing is to try to and get that type of return from all your capital not just a portion of it.

I realize this is a very basic argument and doesn't cover all factors, but I think it illustrates the point none the less. Striving to make your lower end products more profitable or replacing them with products you think will be profitable is the only way to approach this. Right now the big two are producing around 65 items a month and anything not in the top 25% of their items I think is in danger of being cancelled. I don't think that would change if sales tripled for all books because they would still be striving to match the numbers of the higher tier books.

okay that makes a lot of sense i sometimes forget the business side and just assume if they can just break even why wouldn't they want to keep publishing my favorite comic forever...

[simonuk]

Great episodes over the festive period.

I agree that it would be great to have a clearer idea of how people react to these dropping off points and change their pull lists accordingly. I get the feeling that it's not always going off of a book that leads to it being dropped. Rather, most people have a limit (could be budgetary or physical space) and when new books catch their eye there will be a number in their pull list hovering over the precipice, that are then dropped in order to stick to this self imposed purchase limit. I know as an anecdotal example that when I see Greg Pak is writing a Turok book, and looking at some preview pages the art also looks good and I decide to try out the 1st few issues, already now I'm looking with a deadlier eye at some of those books hovering above my 'relegation zone', all of which I'm enjoying to some extent, to find one to be dropped should I like this new book and decide to stick to my limit.

This is where the issues of constant re-numbering, relaunching, cross-overs and changing creative teams work as a dropping off point, because I've already seen some titles I'm getting advertising finales to story arcs, and if I decide to implement a one-in-one-out policy and add Turok, these publishers are highlighting their book with a big 'pick me' sign above its head to consider forbeing dropped.

I was also interested in the discussion at the end of the comics episode on pricing. Although, it is a return on the money spent to get more pages, as a customer I often feel that these 4.99 or above issues are too prevalent, especially on the marque titles, with existing customers being drained to make up for the inability of the industry to attract the numbers of new readers it needs. I think taking advantage of readers does build up a resentment in the back of their mind over time, and again can lead to someone almost beckoning to be given a dropping off point.

Ultimately, I think there is a conundrum in pricing. If you look at the creative process and the fact that you are getting 22 pages of individually created art then the price is very reasonable. But, as a consumer often you can skip through a comic in a matter of minutes, with a heavily decompressed storyline, and feel that you have got little return for your money.

[drew]

well said

Rather, most people have a limit (could be budgetary or physical space)

Most of us do-mine is time...25-30 is all i can read in a week and sometimes that tough to do

This is where the issues of constant re-numbering, relaunching, cross-overs and changing creative teams work as a dropping off point, because I've already seen some titles I'm getting advertising finales to story arcs, and if I decide to implement a one-in-one-out policy and add Turok, these publishers are highlighting their book with a big 'pick me' sign above its head to consider forbeing dropped.

yep- i already dropped wolverine and the xmen since i heard its ending...it gave me an easy out

I was also interested in the discussion at the end of the comics episode on pricing. Although, it is a return on the money spent to get more pages, as a customer I often feel that these 4.99 or above issues are too prevalent, especially on the marque titles, with existing customers being drained to make up for the inability of the industry to attract the numbers of new readers it needs. I think taking advantage of readers does build up a resentment in the back of their mind over time, and again can lead to someone almost beckoning to be given a dropping off point.

Ultimately, I think there is a conundrum in pricing. If you look at the creative process and the fact that you are getting 22 pages of individually created art then the price is very reasonable. But, as a consumer often you can skip through a comic in a matter of minutes, with a heavily decompressed storyline, and feel that you have got little return for your money.

if Batman continues to put out at 5, 6, 8 bucks an issue I am done, even with a few measly extra pages, it feels predatory and very little ROI...

[simonuk]

if Batman continues to put out at 5, 6, 8 bucks an issue I am done, even with a few measly extra pages, it feels predatory and very little ROI...

Yeah, I'm torn at the moment as I've enjoyed Snyder's run of Batman since the detective stuff. However, we had a 4.99 annual in July, then issue 24 was 6.99, followed by issue 25 at 4.99 and I can well see going through a calendar year at some point where between a quarter and a half of Batman issues are at this higher point. In fact, it would only take one more 4.99 book and we'd be at a quarter of Batman issues (not including July's annual) being at this higher point through a 12 month period summer '13 to summer '14 inclusive. This is on top of Batman being at the higher 3.99 price to start with. If this continues the end of Zero Year will be a serious thinking time for me as to whether to continue knowing I'm likely to get repeatedly fleeced like this.